Trump's Prophetic Words About The Jones/Moore Election & This Election Vs. 2016 By The Numbers

When the Alabama Republican Senate Primaries were going on, Trump endorsed Senator Luther Strange.  He said Luther Strange and he had a good working relationship and that he was a vote easily given that Trump needed when he was having trouble rallying the healthcare votes.

Many people, however, criticized Trump for that choice.  I was among them to an extent.  I was frustrated, as were many, at the time with the Republican inaction.  They couldn't get healthcare through on multiple attempts, and they still don't back him on immigration.  At the time, the tax reform bill hadn't gone through as it has now.  We also saw few standing up for Trump with respect to the Russia probe.  Therefore, I think the frustration with McConnell led me to support an anti-establishment figure as McConnell had backed Luther Strange.

However, I recall the night of the rally with Trump and Strange.  Trump got up there calling Strange Big Luther (a reference to his height) and talked about how he had to twist others in the Senate for help on healthcare, but Strange was a willing vote.  Strange spoke as well, and I found him to be a kind person who was very grateful for Trump's support.  He didn't spurn Trump like Gillespie but welcomed him on the campaign trail.  He's in line with Trump on the issues generally, and I thought I would feel bad voting against him.  I likely would have voted against him because McConnell's money and support made one wonder if he would be loyal to McConnell and the GOP establishment or Trump.  The last thing we needed was another Flake, Collins, Murkowski, or McCain.  That said, I couldn't help but feel that he wasn't one of them, was getting falsely railroaded as one of them, and generally speaking, he would be a reliable vote and someone who wouldn't be out there trashing Trump in the press like Flake.  He certainly never has once even though he can now as it doesn't matter for him and he can.

Trump said something at that rally, though, that stuck with me.  I never forgot it, and now it is more relevant than ever (Per Real Clear Politics):

"But I have to say this, and you understand this and just look at the polls, Luther will definitely win," Trump said.

"Roy has a very good chance of not winning in the general election. It's all about the general. Don't forget, we don't stop here. You have an election coming up the day this is over. So this is over on Tuesday. On Wednesday morning, the new race begins. You've got to beat a Democrat. Luther is going to win easily and Roy's going to have a hard time winning. But I will be backing him if he wins. I will be backing him, OK? I'll tell you that," Trump hedged.


I couldn't help but think that night that he was right.  I just felt it in my gut.    However, I brushed it aside.  Moore would have a tougher road, but from what I had heard, Moore was well known in Alabama and was winning in the polls.  It was a red state, after all.  That said, throughout this race, I kept coming back to that quote.  I just felt it was true.  After all, Roy Moore had lost elections in that state to Democrats in the past.

When those accusations, came out, though, I knew he was in trouble.  It's difficult for someone to win with accusations of child molestation against them.  Even if said accusations are false, they are hard to disprove when they are 40 years old and it's just he said/she said.

It didn't help that he did a terrible job responding.  Trump, for his part, got out there and denied accusations against him immediately and did multiple rallies every single day.  He never hid from anyone.  Roy Moore did a disastrous interview with Sean Hannity and largely disappeared.  He did threaten a lawsuit and never followed through.  He wasn't out campaigning and doing rallies every day singing his innocence from the rooftops.  He came out here and there.  Meanwhile, however, Doug Jones barnstormed the state.  He was out there every day.  He also had the full weight of his party and outside money behind him.  He challenged Roy Moore to a debate...which Roy Moore refused to do.  Roy Moore should not have been afraid to debate his point of view.  Trump showed up for debates, one hours after the Access Hollywood tape dropped.  Trump campaigned like Doug Jones did.  Where was Roy Moore the weekend before the election?  Apparently out of state with his wife.  Why?  Moore declared people already knew him.  I guess so, and evidently they didn't like him enough to vote for him.

It didn't help that Moore's campaign was poorly managed with, as I said, periods of him missing, a lack of rallies/events, and not a strong enough pushback against allegations he claimed were false.  His campaign spokespeople often did not act as good surrogates for him in my opinion.

It also didn't help that the GOP establishment, who already hated him and were looking to rebuff Bannon, immediately ceased funding of his campaign.  Prominent, conservative Republicans (including Alabama's own Republican Senator from Alabama) said they couldn't support him.  The RINOs went so far as to donate to his opponent.  Meanwhile, Jones had the full backing of the DNC and money flooding in like a river from out of state.  Senator Shelby had people doing write ins, and the number of write ins (presumably majority Republican) possibly took enough votes away from Moore that it might have cost him the race.

Trump, with allegations against himself that he denies, didn't have proof that Moore was guilty, so he went ahead and endorsed him, knowing how badly he needed that seat and considering issues like abortion (which Jones supports on demand past viability) and border security.  That's the same reason he endorsed Luther Strange too.  He was right then, and all of this could have been avoided had people listened to Trump in the first place as his instincts were correct.  

When Trump won, I knew the momentum was on his side.  People were reporting seeing Trump signs everywhere, even in Democrat areas.  Reports I would read on Twitter?  Republicans saying they voted for a Democrat for the first time and Democrats bragging that all they saw were Jones signs in some areas that had gone Republican traditionally.  Not good.  Doug Jones was barnstorming the state.  I felt the momentum with him, and I thought he could pull it off.  He did.

A look at the next two links show you how many counties flipped from red to blue.  However, some of that was caused by depressed voter turnout and likely write ins:

2016 RESULTS

Trump - 1,318,255
Clinton - 729,547
Johnson - 44,467
Stein - 9,391
Write Ins - 21,712

TOTAL

2,123,372

Thirteen counties went blue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Alabama,_2016

2017 RESULTS

Jones - 671,151
Moore - 650,436
Write Ins - 22,118

Twenty five counties went blue.

TOTAL

1,343,705

The total turnout was 776,667 LESS than the Presidential election.
The total number of votes was only 25,450 over Trump's totals.
Hillary beat Jones by 58,396 votes.  Therefore, all Hillary voters didn't even show up to vote for Jones.  
Trump beat Moore by 667,819 votes.  

That is a staggering number Trump won by.  The Dems were motivated and turned out.  There were some Republicans that switched, although certainly not the majority.  The bottom line is that a lot of voters stayed home - a lot of Republican voters.  If they came out and you factor in the write ins, Moore would have won, but they didn't.

You look at Virginia.  I know Virginia is not the same thing as Trump lost Virginia by five points.  That said, the numbers were such that many who voted in the general stayed home.  The Dems enthused their people, but if all the Trump voters who voted in the general had come out (assuming all the people who voted for Hillary didn't and we just look at the Northam total), Gillespie could have won.  Gillespie was not a good candidate, though.

Presuming that all the write ins were Republican (not sure why a Democrat would write in), that right there gave Jones the election as Trump has noted on Twitter.  He should give Senator Shelby a big hug when he gets to the Senate.

The liberals will now try to make this a referendum on Trumpism.  I think that's ridiculous.  First, would Moore have won if it wasn't for the accusations?  Probably, although I think he was he was too far to the right for even some Republicans as he had made some controversial statements that maybe would have pushed away more moderate Republicans.  However, I think he would have won anyway, although certainly not by Trump like margins.  That said, Trump himself would have won if he ran against Jones in a landslide.  Sessions would have won that seat if he was running, and he's similar to Trump.  Mo Brooks would have won that seat if he had gotten the nomination as Laura Ingraham had wanted him to.

Trump did the unthinkable in winning in 2016.  Perhaps more stock should have been put in his endorsements as he obviously had a keen sense as to who could win.  That said, picking Jeff Sessions for AG seems to have turned out to be a huge mistake as we've lost the seat and now have a special counsel.  Sessions is a good man personally and has had some success at AG on the travel, is working on illegal immigration, and is going after Planned Parenthood.  However, at this point it seems that many leakers have gone by unscathed, Hillary's emails were never investigated, the Clinton campaign ties to Russia aren't investigated, the dirty dossier, the Mueller team conflict's of interest (things that even Lindsey Graham! are calling for).  Maybe he's doing different things behind the scenes.  I don't know.  That said, we'd at least have had the seat if people had backed Trump's choice of Strange. 

To end on a positive note and echo a Trump Tweet, in the end, that seat is up for grabs again in 2020.  That is a Presidential election year.  The Republicans just need to run a controversy free conservative like Brooks or (heck) even Strange again who can win.  Trump should win Alabama, and unless Doug Jones becomes beloved enough to split the ticket, Trump should be able to drag a Republican across the finish line.








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